Next generation Planning & Urban Growth modelling – It’s a PUG’s life by Andrew Saad

Abstract

Preparation of a new Local Government Infrastructure Plan (LGIP) or major amendment to an LGIP usually requires Council to develop a new set of planning assumptions and development projections. As required by the Minister’s Guidelines and Rules (MGR), the predictions for future urban growth are prepared based on the requirements of Section 18 of the MGR (using QGSO and other appropriate resources and considering the development trends for different areas within the City). The Planning and Urban Growth (PUG) model was developed by the City of Gold Coast with funding awarded from the Queensland Government’s Department of State Development, Manufacturing, Infrastructure and Planning (Innovation and Improvement Fund), to develop a repeatable framework and transparent methodology for planning assumptions and LGIP development projection modelling. Throughout 2018-2020, PUG was developed by the City’s Economy Planning and Environment Directorate, in collaboration with Griffith University’s Cities Research Institute, to be a transparent, repeatable and fit for purpose LGIP planning assumptions modelling tool. The PUG is an example of best practice urban growth modelling with a robust framework to provide a reliable foundation for development projections to inform future land use and policy decisions. The PUG will enable the City to better plan, fund and deliver trunk infrastructure which underpins future growth and development. The PUG model provides strategic direction to planners, networks, stakeholders and political decision makers on the anticipated sequence and scale of future residential and non-residential development. The model is a tool to support timely and coordinated delivery of trunk infrastructure, in the context of SEQ regional plans and projections in a financially sustainable manner. The PUG provides:  more accurate, reliable and up-to-date predicted development growth information to support decision making regarding the City’s infrastructure planning  the ability to quantify and validate a more timely and coordinated delivery of trunk infrastructure. The PUG also supports:  enhanced infrastructure planning methodology and tools that provide increased capability and confidence in infrastructure planning outcomes  a prescribed method for growth projection modelling, which can be consistently followed for infrastructure planning practices  estimation of the cost of future trunk infrastructure to assist Council with its long term financial planning and infrastructure charges  the ability to validate land use policies with regard to infrastructure capacity, land capacity and market demand. The PUG model will continue to be refined and evolved in response to feedback and ongoing quality assurance analysis. Aspects of the PUG model currently in refinement include the lot level non- residential allocation of land uses using artifical neural networks analysis and more detailed determination of future land use classification. In addition, regular LGIP reviews demonstrate that the demands of anticipated economic and population growth are met by integrated land use planning, economic development and infrastructure provision. Repeatability of PUG allows for the LGIP process to be more responsive to City Plan changes over time through the ability to undertake more regular LGIP reviews and scenario testing.